A fresh Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is shaping up for 2026, and current estimates point to about 2.7%—roughly $54 more per month (≈$648 per year) for the average retired worker.
The official figure arrives in October 2025, when the Social Security Administration (SSA) releases the COLA based on July–September CPI-W data. Until then, the increase remains a projection and could edge higher if late-summer inflation runs hot.
What’s driving the number?
COLA tracks inflation via the CPI-W; as of mid-August, forecasts ticked up to ~2.7%. With the average monthly benefit at about $2,006.69 (July 2025), a 2.7% bump equals ~$54.18/month or ~$650/year, aligning with the widely quoted “up to $648” figure.
Final CPI-W for August and September will decide whether October’s announcement nudges the increase above that mark.
Key dates to know
- October 2025: SSA issues the official 2026 COLA.
- January 2026: New COLA hits Social Security checks; SSI reflects the same COLA and typically shows up late December for January’s cycle.
How much could you get?
The table below shows illustrative monthly increases if the COLA lands at 2.7%. (Your actual boost depends on your current benefit.)
| Current Monthly Benefit | Estimated COLA % (2026) | Estimated Monthly Increase | Estimated Annual Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,200 | 2.7% | $32 | $384 |
| $1,500 | 2.7% | $41 | $486 |
| $2,006.69 (avg retired worker) | 2.7% | $54.18 | $650.16 |
| $2,500 | 2.7% | $67.50 | $810 |
| $3,000 | 2.7% | $81 | $972 |
Note: Figures are estimates until the SSA’s October announcement.
SSI and disability impacts
SSI beneficiaries see the same percentage COLA as Social Security. A 2.7% adjustment would modestly lift the 2025 federal rate of $967 (individual) and $1,450 (couple) for 2026 payments. SSDI checks rise by the same COLA percentage as well.
Medicare Part B may offset some gains
Projected Part B premium increases (potentially >11% for 2026) could eat into net take-home benefits for those who have premiums deducted from Social Security.
The “hold harmless” rule protects many beneficiaries from seeing their net Social Security payment drop due to higher Part B premiums, but it doesn’t guarantee you’ll keep the full dollar value of the COLA.
Why October matters
The SSA fixes COLA using Q3 CPI-W average (July–September). With July data in, the August and September readings will determine whether the COLA sticks near 2.7% or surprises higher. Expect the official October message to settle it—and for checks to reflect the increase in January 2026.
Based on current inflation, a ~2.7% COLA would lift the average check by about $54/month—~$648/year—with potential upside if late-summer CPI-W runs hotter. Watch for the SSA’s October announcement to lock in the number, then plan for updated payments starting January 2026.